Weather Watching for Hikers

Weather Watching for Hikers 

Weather can make or break a day in the bush. It can turn a cruisy family loop into a slippery obstacle course, or transform an exposed ridge into something that feels genuinely unsafe.

Checking the forecast is obvious. Knowing how to actually read it — and plan around it — is where things get interesting.

Here’s how we approach weather watching before stepping onto the trail.

1. Don’t Just Check the Temperature

The first thing most people look at is the maximum temperature. That’s only one piece of the picture.

Instead, look at:

• The hourly breakdown
• The “feels like” temperature
• Wind speed
• Rain timing
• Overnight lows

A 24°C day with 40km/h winds on an exposed cliff line feels very different to 24°C in a sheltered valley.

Likewise, a 32°C forecast that peaks at 4pm is manageable if you’re finished by 11am. Not so manageable if you’re starting late.

Plan your start time around the heat, not just the date.

2. Wind Changes Everything

Wind is often overlooked, especially in the mountains.

Strong wind can:

• Make exposed lookouts unsafe
• Increase bushfire risk
• Drop branches
• Amplify cold dramatically
• Turn a pleasant summit into a place you can’t stand upright

If wind gusts are forecast above 30–40km/h, rethink exposed ridgelines or cliff-edge walks. If it’s over 60km/h, consider whether that hike is worth it at all.

Also check wind direction. A southerly change can roll in quickly and drop the temperature fast, especially in higher elevations.

3. Rain Timing Matters More Than Rain Amount

A forecast that says “2–5mm” doesn’t mean much on its own.

Is that steady drizzle all day? Or a single heavy storm cell at 3pm?

If rain is predicted later in the day, you may still get a dry window in the morning. If storms are forecast, pay attention to timing and lightning risk — especially if you’re heading to high points, exposed granite domes, or fire trails with little shelter.

After heavy rain, consider:

• Creek crossings
• Slippery rock platforms
• Waterfall track safety
• Track erosion
• Leech activity

The weather on the day is only part of it. What happened yesterday matters too.

4. Learn to Read the Radar

Forecasts can shift. Radar shows what’s happening right now.

Before you leave home, check the rain radar. You can see:

• Whether showers are building
• Which direction they’re moving
• How fast they’re travelling

A small band of rain might clear in an hour. A large system moving steadily toward your location might not.

Radar is especially useful on those unpredictable summer days when storms pop up mid-afternoon.

5. Mountain and Coastal Microclimates Are Real

Conditions can vary dramatically within short distances.

In places like the Blue Mountains:

• It’s often colder at elevation
• Wind is stronger on ridges
• Valleys can trap heat
• Fog can roll in quickly

On the coast:

• Sea breezes shift conditions fast
• Humidity can spike
• Storms can build offshore

Always check the forecast for the specific area you’re hiking — not just the nearest major town.

6. Plan for the “What If”

Weather forecasts are predictions, not guarantees.

Ask yourself:

• If this rain doubles, am I prepared?
• If the wind strengthens, do I have a layer?
• If a storm arrives early, do I have shelter?
• If temperatures drop suddenly, will I be cold?

Even on warm days, a lightweight rain jacket and an extra layer can make a huge difference.

7. Heat Is Often the Biggest Risk

In Australia, heat causes more problems for hikers than cold.

If temperatures are forecast above 30°C:

• Start early
• Carry more water than usual
• Choose shaded tracks
• Avoid long exposed climbs
• Be realistic about your fitness

If it’s above 35°C, reconsider entirely. The bush will still be there tomorrow.

8. Fire Weather Warnings

• On high fire danger days:
• Avoid remote areas
• Check park alerts
• Know the fire danger rating
• Be cautious in areas with limited escape routes

Wind + heat + low humidity is a dangerous combination.

Always check official park alerts in addition to the general forecast.

9. Look at Trends, Not Just the Day

• Is this the first hot day after a cool spell?
• Has it rained for a week straight?
• Has there been recent storm damage?

Recent conditions affect trail safety. Mud, fallen trees, swollen creeks, and slippery rock platforms often lag behind the actual weather event.

10. Build Flexibility Into Your Plan

Some of our best days in the bush have come from adjusting the plan.

• If it’s windy, choose a sheltered valley walk.
• If storms are forecast, opt for a shorter loop.
• If it’s scorching, find a creek-side trail.
• If it’s raining steadily, maybe it’s a café-and-lookout day instead.

Good planning isn’t about forcing the original plan to work. It’s about choosing the right hike for the conditions.

Final Thoughts

Weather watching isn’t about fear. It’s about awareness.

The more you understand what you’re looking at — wind, timing, radar, elevation, recent rainfall — the better your decision-making becomes.

And better decisions mean safer, more enjoyable days on the trail.

Because the bush is brilliant in all seasons. You just have to meet it on the right terms.